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This Commentary is not advice.

Just like everyone else, the GFC has come to my attention. Nothing special going on there.

Two things that both amused and alarmed me seem worth the mention. The first is that one of the major financial advisory groups that I am familiar with has decided to rewrite history. On their Home Page they placed a very snazzy presentation that ‘implies’ they saw the GFC coming in 2007. Now, that’s interesting, because, armed with this foresight they still managed to underperform other fund managers and presently are still going backwards. Perhaps a case of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing?

The other aspect that has come to my attention is that no financial advisor I have come across this year has had anything to suggest other than ‘ she’ll be right in the long run’. Really impressive idea that - assuming you actually manage to keep a portfolio long enough after they take out their ongoing fees (which oddly do not seem to be related to performance).

I am not complaining. Anyone who expects a Government Regulated financial system to deliver valuable outcomes for private individuals is possibly an Alien from another planet or Socialist. Of the two, you are better off being an Alien - at least you have the chance to get off the planet when it doesn’t work out.

So what about the rest of us who have money tied up in Superannuation? Well the best advice I have been able to get is that my Super money will continue to decline for the remainder of this year. And, possibly longer. The interesting thing about that is that we like to get information that confirms what we personally feel. And I personally feel that the Aussie Share market is in for another dip this year. I have asked those around me what they think. Not surprisingly the responses fall into 3 camps -those who are trying not to think of it at all (a large number); those who point to the recent Bear Rally as a sign of recovery; and, those that agree with me that more downside is to come. Interestingly, no-one who is under the Regulatory Prudential controls is prepared to go for option 3 ‘on the record’. Why, because it is almost illegal to advise clients that they should be concerned with short term volatility. Pity about that 15 -  20% you could have rescued.

Australia has been cushioned from the GFC through sheer luck. That’s right, we ARE the lucky country. Who would have thought that nearly strangling the economy through interest rate rises over 4 years would prove to be a good thing? The RBA overcooked interest rates and so we were able to cut costs rapidly across the broad economy. That has kept our heads above water. That run of luck is coming to an end sometime soon and the Australian Sharemarket seems set for another fall as I see it. Possible triggers are: China has finished picking off our prime mining assets; or news that China has cooked the books and that their GDP is closer to 2%, or worse still, negative.; or, the US Fiscal Stimulus leads to the inevitable before the rest of the world recovers. Have you noticed the slight disconnect between our market and the US in recent months? It is worth asking, why?

Most days recently, a well informed associate of mine takes glee in pointing out the rise in the All Ordinaries. You see, I have been in Cash for a long time now. He thinks I just got lucky.  I don’t take the bait. The few remaining Market Linked super funds I have are still losing money despite the rise in the AORDs. Curious that, and reminds me again of what a marvellous thing Market Regulation is. It no doubt was invented to confuse Aliens and socialists as to how things really work. It certainly did the trick for Superannuants - most thought until recently that the advice they got was perfectly sound and almost Government Guaranteed. Even John Lennon did not Imagine that.

What really frightens me is when I see our PM and that odd bloke from the UK yelling (from the pulpit !!!) that profit is immoral and they are going to legislate to make sure we never see money made like that again. Luckily for the free world Germany does not agree because, oddly, they did not get suckered so badly. What is really upsetting these guys is that the making of vast sums of money from out of nowhere is supposed to be the sole domain of Government. They call it Quantitative Easing. (Quantative would have done.)   QE is the process by which Governments steal your asset values by printing money and so devaluing everything you own in REAL TERMS.

You do what you have to. Me, I am staying in Cash until I see just who made it to the lifeboats and who gets washed up on shore. BTW, I have made sure that my Cash is in real money, not that other stuff that some Super Funds use as a substitute. I don’t think that I will need to revisit this strategy anytime soon. And my ‘watch this space’ is: India.

If I am wrong? Well, I will just move on and seek fresh opportunity. That’s the true role of a free market - assuming that the Rudd-ites don’t get to destroy it first. And if that happens, well there ain’t a hole big enough in Cisco Texas to save us all.

Cheers.

Years ago I saw a sign that has stuck in my mind since:

“A business with no advertising has no business.”

Most businesses start with great enthusiasm. Often this enthusiasm becomes replaced by routine.  Regularly, even very good businesses just slide into oblivion. Have you noticed at the Shopping Centre how businesses turnover? Last years great jeans store is this years shoe shop. Even more likely, the last vacant jeans shop is replaced by a completely new jeans store with a new owner. This happens regularly. What is often missed in this process is that the emergence of a ‘new’ store represents a very strong form of Advertising. We are all attracted by the ‘new’.

 ”A business with no advertising has no business.”

 Perhaps you are still not convinced. You are doing OK and have been in business a few years now.  You definitely have ‘a business’.  Well, perhaps, but are you simply ’self-employed’?  To borrow a phrase ’self-employment is the opiate of the businessperson’. Self-employment is an occupation, not a business. A business has to contain a dynamic that gives it a separate form and opportunity for growth regardless of you.

You can develop your true potential in business. First, you need to understand what it is that you supply. The answer could start with:  I add value to the lives of my customers by….

Once you have that finished, the next task is to complete:  My web site does this by….

All of the successful business operators that I have been involved with could answer those two questions. Often, I come acrosss businesses that know what they are about but have no idea of how their web site should deliver. The confusion exists that somehow just having a web site is enough, as if it is a complete form of advertising solution of itself. Some consider that their web site will be a success through it’s technology.  A good place to start is to consider what a new customer will look for when visiting your site. New customers are the most expensive acquisition for most businesses. So after you have gained one, the next stage is to ask what should existing customers get from your web presence?

Recently, I encountered a new Business Web Site that had these issues sorted out, and two others that did not. The growing business has developed a niche market sector and gone out to deliver service at a level not previously available. The launch was supported by a moderately successful Adwords campaign. The sales result was clear but not great. Using analytics from that campaign, the issues that are getting in the way have been identified. Improvements are being made and more advertising can proceed.

The other businesses had developed their sites in isolation.  One made no new Advertising effort at all and the other embarked on a very big SEO effort. Result: nothing much. Apart from a short traffic peak as the operators eagerly traversed their own work, the sites remained unvisited by the public to which they were addressed.

Advertising: Nil. Business result: Nil.

That message again: “A business with no advertising has no business.”

Since the exposure of Clickjaking in September, a lot of effort has gone into working out the implications and potential solutions to this problem. There is a great deal of information now available about the problem which was first described at http://ha.ckers.org/ You can follow the technical discussions there or through a search.

This article is not about the technical how and why of Clickjacking, but I will offer a short definition. Clickjacking is the execution of hidden code on a web page such that a user executes some action without being aware of it. JavaScript is one way that this can be achieved. To see an example of how this works without Clickjacking take a look at the example on this page: http://www.pages.org/javascript/email_button.html It contains a very normal button to open up your Email and send a message. This is common on many web sites.

Now consider the effect if that button was invisible and placed above a screen that looked ’safe’. It could be placed as a transparent layer so that anywhere you clicked on a screen would activate any piece of JavaScript without your knowledge. That’s Clickjacking. Clickjacking can be as simple as when a web page contains a transparent button that executes a download from another site. In this case the user will be unaware that the software download does not reside on the site they are visiting.  This may be well intended, such as simplifying a set of tasks that would otherwise involve many more steps. However, the fact that the user is unaware of the process allows for more sophisticated diversions that can compromise security by redirecting or skimming data.

So what can you do Cliackjacking? The major vendors are aware of the risk and the industry is working on patches. The status at present appears to be that the issue is so complex and fundamental to web browser functionality that a solution is some time off. Which raises the question of what to do in the meantime? Faced with this, I have come to the conclusion that there are two reasonable defensive actions 1) only use Firefox (http://www.mozilla-europe.org/en/firefox/) with the NoScript plugin installed ( http://noscript.net/). 2) be extra vigilant in observing browser sessions particularly where personal data and passwords are involved. As always, as a minimum, make sure you are confident in the sites you visit.

These two steps do not eliminate the risk.  What they do is reduce the risk.

This very rare specimen is located in a remote part of Central Australia. The location, near Coober Pedy, is a secret.

Few of this species survive today. This example clearly shows the Eucalyptus Originalis as the common ancestor of the Gum-boot tree and common Bottle Brush tree (seen here with the bottles still intact). It is unusual to find one in flower.  The marvellous red strands have evolved into today’s more compact bottle-brush varieties.

The Gum Boot Tree is today just called a Gumtree, due to changes in the genetic line some time after the pleistonic period. That was a period of deep and prolonged drought which forced the species to develop a much smaller fruiting body. This remnant population is protected by it’s remote location and the careful management of locals. There are just a handful spread over an area of approximately 2.5 square kms.

The lack of leaves is not a matter for concern. The leaves are shed during flowering so that sufficient energy is available to grow the long red flower strands, seen here at the centre right of the tree. All Gumtrees drop their leaves during flowering, but not to the same extent. This ancient specimen has survived through centuries of environmental change.  The boots and thongs seen in the lower branches are selective adaptations to modern times. Surprisingly, the bottles are original. Local aboriginals used these containers for over 50,000 years which is one reason they were so successful living in the desert. It is thought that excessive harvesting of the large bottles led to the adaptation of the tree to the now familiar gum-nut. European migrants adopted the design in the 80’s as plastics became widely available. The proliferation of the plastic bottle across the Nation’s highways led to some confusion amongst botanists who doubted evidence of the Originalis variety. However, these remnant specimens clearly show the origins of the species.  It is interesting to note that similar confusion existed with early specimens of the Platypus which European scientists considered were fakes composed of parts from numerous animals.

This rare specimen is vulnerable to the effects of soil compaction. To limit damage, locals have attached the cans, road-kill and other assorted items seen in the picture. These additions confuse Backpackers, who generally just drive-by. This was found to be a more effective method than fencing which attracted unwanted interest.

My thanks to Peter of Johns Pizza Bar (The best food in CP)

In ancient Vedic knowledge, one of the greatest goals to be sought is to be a master of dialectics.

In essence, this means to know what is ‘truth’. Recent experience has further enhanced my respect for this wisdom and I urge all who read this to try and work for truth in your life and dealings with others.

(Update: The Australia Live web site referred to in this article was discontinued after the Olympics).

On the eve of the Beijing Olympics, it seems appropriate to bring together Web 2.0., the technical event of 2007/2008, and the Olympic Games. Australia has a long history of achievement in both the sports and technology fields. The recent BRW article showcasing 100 Australian Web 2.0 sites gives some indication of how strong we are on that front. Though, it has to be said that the BRW list probably included some sites that would not make the cut in real competition. That tantalising ‘Top 100′ certainly sounds better than the ‘Top 87′ and probably got the better of them.

Australia’s Olympic Athletes apparently face a tough time in Beijing.  Australian Olympic chief John Coates, was bringing to our attention that we spend an awful lot of money on our athletes for such a small Nation. He also seemed to imply that he felt we were falling behind in sports competitiveness. I am not sure that was the best strategy to apply when seeking more funding in a performance based world. How many Australian Technology Companies get almost unlimited funding from the Federal Government? Even so, as a Nation we manage to develop world leading solutions that are often snapped up by the industry giants.

In the spirit of the Games, take a look at Australia Live. This Web 2.0 site offers sports fans the opportunity to have their say and support the Australian team.

Web browsers are more aggresive in warnings about security certificates. This extends to the content of embedded advertising links on pages. If one of the links uses https then a certificate scan is in order.

What happens if the certificate is not liked by the Browser?

Your visitor will get a warning message about security of the page. At this point most will QUIT, many choosing never to return. Their trust has been broken. One thing that developers often assume is that the ordinary public can work out for themselves what is happening. As a trainer, I can vouch that very few users have the courage to doubt a security warning on their browser. Most will assume it means they face a great and unknown risk.

So make sure that your secure affiliate and advertising links have valid certificates. You will also need to test them across the different browsers, as each has their own take on how to manage security. IE might pass something that Firefox or Opera will knock out.

We sometimes get comment that it is hard to contact us by telephone. That’s true. The telephone is not the best means of contacting busy technicians who are glued to their computer screens. However, when you (or we) place ‘the call’, the ‘need’ is to speak to someone. That need often outweighs the value of the matter being followed up. That is, the emotional weight of the situation shifts to the need to talk to someone. If that emotional need is not satisfied, we feel rejected or anxious or just plain annoyed. I know because it happens to me as well. Or at least it used to.

So what is going on when you can’t talk to someone in support right away? Possibly they are solving a Mission Critical task, have three phone lines in use, and twelve active web connections open. Or perhaps they are working on installing a software upgrade or new server. So, you get Voice mail and the anxiety builds.

Would it help if all calls could get through? Yes and No. The emotional weight would be lifted, but the cost would be extended delays in solution. This is because the emotional weight tends to be dumped during a support call.

It becomes a question of balance, judgement and trust.

Balance. Only someone who has oversight of all system status will have the balance to prioritise faults. When you or I experience a problem with something we want to use, the emotional response is narrowly focused.

Judgement. The SYSop is the best placed person to judge the critical nature of an issue for 2 reasons. First, they know the likely cause, cure and duration of an event from years of experience. Secondly, they are uniquely placed to provide a balanced view of the situation in context of the entire site.

Trust. Unless you are new to a business, you should be able to determine from past experience if you can trust in their performance. Most likely, the problem you are experiencing is sudden and unexpected. Step back from it and you can unload some of the anxiety you feel by recognising that normal service will return. Armed with this information, you can assist the process of recovery by doing some work on the matter before calling support. Did you just change something? Are your friends/workmates experiencing the problem also?

We are all human and our emotions matter, your’s and mine. However, a unique feature of emotions is that we choose to have them. Really, we do.

Consider why you feel the distress in a situation and you will realise that is has nothing to do with the facts. Facts are just that, observations of events. They have no emotional weight. The deadline/sale/upgrade that is at risk is also unweighted emotionally, it will happen or not regardless of how we feel about it. We can choose not to be disturbed and calmly deal with the situation. This will keep our minds clear and help resolve the challenge; or importantly find an alternative if the situation is one of those rare extended events.

The reason I am writing this is because I recently had my emotions tuned to something very trivial. We were asked for a fix to a situation a customer was in as a result of some changes they had made. The work was done professionally and promptly. What happened next? Absolutely nothing. Weeks later, the work remained unused. Their emotional need had been solved and passed onto us. If I had thought more about it at the time, I would have realised that the issue was not a priority. The customer at the time was anxious to resolve their problem, mainly because they were dealing with something not well understood. That converted to anxiety, a call to support and diversion of efforts from work in hand.

Was availability of ready support on the ‘phone a good thing? You be the judge.

Click on the link below for another take on this topic.

The System is down.

An interesting attempt to exploit some (as yet unknown) vulnerability in Wordpress showed up today. So far, it does not seem to have been successful.  Took a look at the Wordpress Forum and can see something there that might be the subject of interest but not in this manner. Does our visitor watch the forum for clues to exploit? Maybe. 

It appears to be an attempt to exploit Comments submission and retrieve the Admin password. It does produce some interesting results from the engine.

They are wasting their time for no useful advantage. If they succeed it will just point out a failure in someone-else’s product design, not a great achievement, and better done in a controlled environment if it is to have a useful purpose.

If the individual(s) want to post on my site, well why not just ask for the right to publish content? I would probably agree. If the idea is to advertise some generic product that can be found everywhere on the internet, then why go to so much effort when there are much easier ways?

I suppose a dialogue on this is unlikely to occur. Perhaps our visitor might want to post what they are trying to achieve and what brought you to bother?

I am amazed at the immediate performance improvement after installing SP3. Usually, I am reluctant to move so quickly to a major upgrade. This time, it looked like Microsoft had few problems and so I took the plunge. The benefits are immediate with noticeable speed up of the environment across the board. It’s almost as if I had put in a new processor or extra RAM.

It’s been a while but I can say ” Thank YOU Microsoft”. This is the real thing.

PS. I have returned to  say. Wow.  The performance boost is just so apparent that I can hardly believe it. Just the thing to lift spirits after a tough day.